China

China’s importance in international trade is beyond any doubt, as it is the main partner of the majority of the countries of Asia, Africa, Oceania and the Americas, and one of the main partners of Europe. In the case of the Basque Country, China is the third country with the largest number of footholds, only exceeded recently by Mexico and the USA post pandemic, and China is one of the leading countries of origin of Basque imports. Its size and sophistication make this country a market that is both a competitor and recipient of Basque products, and is clearly one of the countries to which Basque business pays greatest attention.

The Basque Country, a gateway to Europe

China has consolidated its position as a global powerhouse in many areas, driven by its fast economic growth, its influence on international trade and its growing military and technological power. As the second largest economy in the world, China plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, and is both a leading exporter of manufactured products and has a large consumer market. Furthermore, its Belt and Road Initiative strategy has expanded its diplomatic and economic influence in Asia, Africa and Europe. As regards technology, China has advanced significantly in areas such as artificial intelligence and telecommunications, and is challenging other powerhouses in key sectors. However, its global position is also facing challenges, such as the diplomatic and trade tensions with the United States and other countries, along with concerns about human rights and internal politics. Nonetheless, China is continuing to expand its influence and redefine its role in global geopolitics.

The Chinese economy is one of the largest and most dynamic in the world, known for its fast growth and its transformation from a mainly agricultural economy to a technological and industrial powerhouse. During recent decades, China has managed to consolidate as the leading world exporter and a lynchpin in the global supply chain, driving sectors such as manufacturing, technology, construction and telecommunications. However, the Chinese economy is facing important challenges, such as its ageing population, strained trade relations with other powers, particularly the United States, and the need to reduce its dependency on investment and export to balance its growth. The Chinese government places great emphasis on developing its technology sector and on the transition towards an economy more oriented to domestic consumption and innovation, even though such a transformation requires important regulatory and structural adjustments.

After the 5.2% expansion of the GDP in 2023, growth is forecast to remain steady at 4.9% of the GDP in 2024, with economic growth accelerating between 2025 and 2028. The government is expected to maintain this growth with an ambitious fiscal expansion plan and a significant increase in aid. China will become a key exporter of the electric car industry and of vehicle components, including some of the most competitive batteries in the world. Even though the ageing population is expected to be problematic, China as a lure for world talent will sustain industry.

Even though western protectionism against Chinese competitors and the diversification of European and American markets could be a threat, China will continue to grow on the international market, particularly on markets such as machine tooling, petrochemical and the car industry. The GDP is forecast to continue in surplus, as China’s competitive industrial sector and increasing investment abroad means it is likely to ensure a safe passage through external threats. Foreign investment in China is expected to recover, due to the strength of its main industries, which will remain competitive on the international market.

China’s market is extremely attractive for global investments and companies due to its huge population, its rapid economic growth and its rising middle class with ever-greater purchasing power. China offers important opportunities in sector such as consumer goods, technology, automotive, health and renewable energy, attracting companies seeking to expand their outreach in Asia and harness the size and diversity of the Chinese market. Furthermore, the Chinese government has implemented reforms to facilitate foreign investment and drive innovation, even though it keeps regulations and policies in place that may be challenges, such as restrictions on certain sectors and a regulatory framework in a state of flux. Despite those challenges, the Chinese market is ever more attractive, driven by the momentum of its economy, its investment in advanced infrastructure and its strategic position in the global economy.

Even though China offers huge opportunities and has a strong economy, it is facing challenges that may influence the stability of its investments. State intervention in the economy, the control of strategic sectors and rapidly changing regulations create uncertainty for foreign companies. Furthermore, strained trade relations with countries such as the United States and concerns about intellectual property rights add complexity to the investment environment. The likelihood of sanctions, trade barriers and government influence on business and judicial decisions are also risks to be considered. Despite those factors, the Chinese market continues to be attractive, even though companies must have a robust risk mitigation strategy and be ready to adapt to a dynamic political and regulatory environment.

China está intentando aumentar la confianza de los inversores en su sector financiero con nuevas regulaciones y nuevos incentivos, particularmente en sectores de alta tecnología. Hay múltiples incentivos fiscales para las empresas, tales como bajadas de impuestos, burocracia especializada o aranceles reducidos. Además, el sector financiero ha mejorado mucho, y los problemas como la banca sumergida o el blanqueamiento de capitales han sido severamente reducidos.

Desde las reformas de mercado iniciadas en 1978, China ha liberalizado progresivamente su economía, fomentando el comercio exterior, atrayendo inversión extranjera y promoviendo la modernización de sus sectores industriales. Este proceso incluyó la adhesión de China a la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) en 2001, lo que aceleró su integración en el comercio global y le permitió convertirse en el principal exportador del mundo. A pesar de su apertura, China mantiene cierto control en sectores estratégicos y aplica políticas que favorecen el desarrollo de empresas nacionales, especialmente en tecnología y energía. Sin embargo, el país continúa buscando un equilibrio entre su apertura al capital extranjero y la protección de sus intereses económicos internos, lo que le permite maximizar los beneficios de su posición como uno de los mayores mercados del mundo.

China mantiene diversas barreras al comercio que afectan a las empresas extranjeras, incluyendo aranceles, restricciones a la propiedad extranjera, y un marco regulatorio complejo que varía por sector. Existen controles estrictos en industrias estratégicas, como tecnología, telecomunicaciones y energía, donde las empresas extranjeras deben cumplir con estrictas regulaciones o asociarse con compañías locales para operar. Además, China utiliza estándares técnicos y requisitos de certificación que pueden ser difíciles de cumplir para las empresas internacionales. Las barreras no arancelarias, como las licencias de importación y los procedimientos de inspección, también ralentizan el acceso al mercado. A esto se suma la política de “Made in China 2025”, que busca fomentar la autosuficiencia en sectores clave, lo que ha llevado a preocupaciones sobre competencia desleal y acceso desigual para las empresas extranjeras. Estas barreras al comercio reflejan el esfuerzo de China por proteger su economía y promover el crecimiento de sus empresas nacionales en el mercado global.

La seguridad legal en China para inversores extranjeros es un aspecto que ha mejorado en las últimas décadas, pero que aún plantea desafíos significativos. China ha trabajado en fortalecer su marco legal para proteger las inversiones, incluyendo la promulgación de la Ley de Inversión Extranjera en 2020, que busca mejorar la transparencia y garantizar igualdad de condiciones entre empresas nacionales y extranjeras. Sin embargo, persisten preocupaciones sobre la protección de los derechos de propiedad intelectual, la independencia judicial y la aplicación coherente de las leyes, especialmente en sectores sensibles como tecnología y datos. Las empresas extranjeras también enfrentan riesgos relacionados con cambios regulatorios frecuentes y posibles restricciones en sectores estratégicos.